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Introduction: The Foldable Revolution Enters Apple’s Era
The smartphone industry has spent years experimenting with foldable devices, but 2026 could become the moment when foldables finally move from a niche category into the mainstream premium market. Samsung has been building the foundation of this segment for years, Huawei has challenged its dominance in several regions, and other manufacturers have continued refining flexible displays. However, one major player has remained absent: Apple.
According to a new forecast from Counterpoint Research, Apple’s expected entry into the foldable smartphone market could dramatically change the competitive landscape. The report predicts that global foldable smartphone shipments will grow by 21% year over year in 2026, with Apple potentially capturing around 25% of the entire market during its first year.
If the prediction becomes reality, Apple would immediately become one of the largest foldable smartphone manufacturers worldwide, proving once again that the company’s entrance into a product category can redefine consumer expectations.
Apple Could Capture One Quarter of Foldable Smartphone Sales in 2026
Counterpoint Predicts a Major Market Shift
Counterpoint Research’s latest analysis suggests that Apple’s rumored foldable iPhone, often referred to as the iPhone Ultra in reports, could enter the market at exactly the right time. While Samsung is expected to remain the global leader, Apple’s arrival could create a new battle for dominance in the premium foldable segment.
The research firm forecasts that worldwide foldable smartphone shipments will increase by 21% in 2026 compared with the previous year. The growth will be strongly influenced by Apple’s participation, as millions of existing iPhone users could become potential buyers of a foldable device.
Apple’s strategy has historically been different from competitors. Instead of being first to introduce new hardware categories, the company often waits until the technology matures before entering with a refined version designed around user experience, software integration, and premium branding.
Samsung Expected to Keep Leadership Despite Losing Market Share
The Foldable Pioneer Faces Stronger Competition
Samsung is expected to remain the largest foldable smartphone company in 2026, but its market dominance may weaken as new competitors enter the space.
Counterpoint predicts Samsung’s foldable market share will decline from approximately 40% in 2025 to around 32% in 2026. Although Samsung will still lead the category, the company will face its toughest challenge since launching the first Galaxy Fold models.
Samsung’s advantage comes from years of experience, strong manufacturing capabilities, and an established Galaxy ecosystem. The company has invested heavily in improving durability, hinge technology, display quality, and software optimization.
However, Apple’s arrival could change consumer perception. Many customers who previously avoided foldables because of concerns about reliability, software support, or price may reconsider once Apple offers its own version.
Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Immediately Become a Market Leader
A Rare Achievement for a First-Generation Product
Apple entering second place in the global foldable smartphone market during its first year would be an extraordinary achievement. Counterpoint estimates Apple could secure a 25% share of foldable shipments in 2026.
This would place Apple slightly ahead of Huawei, which is projected to hold about 24% of the market. Huawei’s share is expected to decline from approximately 30% in 2025 as competition increases.
Motorola is forecast to hold around 8%, dropping from 12%, while HONOR could fall from 7% to approximately 3%. Other manufacturers combined are expected to account for the remaining 8%.
The expected market distribution shows a major industry transition. Foldables may move away from being dominated by Android manufacturers and become a three-way competition between Apple, Samsung, and Huawei.
Why Apple’s Entry Could Accelerate Foldable Adoption
The Power of the Apple Ecosystem
Apple’s influence extends beyond hardware sales. When Apple introduces a new product category, it often creates wider consumer awareness and encourages developers to optimize software experiences.
The Apple Watch is one example of how Apple entered a market that already existed but transformed it into a mainstream product category. The company’s rumored foldable iPhone could follow a similar path.
A foldable iPhone would likely connect deeply with existing Apple services, including iCloud, Apple Intelligence features, productivity applications, and ecosystem continuity between devices.
For many users, the appeal would not simply be owning a folding screen phone. The attraction would be having a larger portable display while maintaining the familiar iOS experience.
Wider Foldable Designs Could Become the Future of Mobile Computing
Foldables Are Becoming More Than Smartphones
Counterpoint Research highlighted an important trend: wider book-style foldable designs could become increasingly valuable as artificial intelligence becomes integrated into everyday tasks.
AI features are moving beyond simple chatbot interactions. Future smartphones are expected to help users summarize documents, edit content, manage schedules, organize information, and complete professional tasks.
A larger internal display provides more space for these experiences. Instead of viewing foldables as phones that become tablets, manufacturers are increasingly positioning them as compact productivity devices.
Samsung’s upcoming Galaxy Z Fold8 reportedly follows this philosophy with a wider design that improves usability. Interestingly, the design appears similar to rumors surrounding Apple’s future foldable iPhone, although Samsung executives have stated that the similarities are coincidental.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8 and Apple’s Foldable iPhone Battle
Two Different Visions for the Same Future
Samsung’s next-generation foldable devices will attempt to strengthen its leadership before Apple enters the market.
The Galaxy Z Fold8 reportedly focuses on improving productivity through a wider screen, better AI integration, and a more practical design. Samsung wants foldables to become tools for work, creativity, and multitasking.
Apple, meanwhile, is expected to focus heavily on premium design, simplicity, and ecosystem integration. The company’s challenge will be convincing customers that a foldable iPhone offers enough advantages to justify a potentially high price.
The competition between Samsung and Apple could push the entire industry forward, benefiting consumers through faster innovation, better durability, and more advanced software.
The Premium Foldable Market Could Become the Next Smartphone Battlefield
Manufacturers Must Adapt or Lose Ground
The smartphone market has become increasingly difficult for manufacturers because traditional smartphones have reached maturity. Annual upgrades are becoming less dramatic, and consumers are keeping devices longer.
Foldables represent one of the few areas where manufacturers can create excitement again.
Apple’s entry could force competitors to improve rapidly. Companies that cannot compete with Apple’s ecosystem advantage may struggle to maintain market share.
Future battles will likely focus on more than hardware specifications. Software experience, artificial intelligence features, durability, battery efficiency, and ecosystem integration will determine which companies succeed.
Deep Analysis: Commands
Command 1: Analyze Market Impact
The arrival of Apple in the foldable smartphone market would likely become one of the biggest shifts in mobile technology since the introduction of the original iPhone. Apple has the ability to transform consumer expectations, forcing competitors to rethink pricing, design, and software strategies.
Command 2: Analyze Consumer Behavior
Many consumers have avoided foldable phones because they consider them expensive experiments. Apple’s reputation for reliability could reduce those concerns and convince mainstream users that foldables are mature enough for everyday use.
Command 3: Analyze AI Integration
Artificial intelligence may become the strongest reason for foldable adoption. A larger screen allows AI assistants to provide richer interactions, better multitasking, and more advanced productivity features.
Command 4: Analyze Samsung’s Position
Samsung will remain a powerful competitor because it has years of foldable experience. However, the company must continue improving hardware innovation while defending its premium customers from Apple’s ecosystem advantage.
Command 5: Analyze Huawei’s Challenge
Huawei has demonstrated strong foldable technology, particularly in markets where Apple has limited influence. However, global expansion remains difficult due to ecosystem restrictions and market limitations.
Command 6: Analyze Industry Growth
A 21% increase in foldable shipments indicates that the category may finally reach a stronger growth phase. Apple’s involvement could accelerate adoption by bringing millions of new buyers into the market.
Command 7: Analyze Pricing Pressure
Foldable smartphones remain expensive compared with traditional phones. Apple’s entry could maintain premium pricing but also encourage manufacturers to introduce more affordable foldable models.
Command 8: Analyze Long-Term Technology Trends
Foldables may represent the beginning of a larger transition toward flexible computing devices. Future products could combine smartphones, tablets, and AI assistants into a single adaptable platform.
Command 9: Analyze Developer Opportunities
More foldable users will encourage developers to create applications optimized for multiple screen sizes. Productivity apps, entertainment platforms, and AI tools could benefit significantly.
Command 10: Analyze Apple’s Strategic Timing
Apple’s delayed entry appears intentional. The company has historically waited until technologies become commercially viable before entering with a polished product.
What Undercode Say:
Apple’s Entry Could Change Everything
Apple entering the foldable smartphone market is not just another product launch. It could represent the moment when foldables become accepted as mainstream premium devices.
Samsung’s First-Mover Advantage Is Being Tested
Samsung created the modern foldable category, but Apple’s ecosystem strength could challenge Samsung faster than traditional competitors.
AI Will Be the Real Reason People Buy Foldables
The future of foldables may not depend only on screen technology. AI-powered productivity could become the biggest selling point.
Bigger Screens Match the AI Era
As smartphones become smarter, users need more space to interact with digital assistants and advanced applications.
Apple Could Repeat Its Wearable Strategy
Just as Apple helped popularize smartwatches, the company could make foldable phones appealing to a much wider audience.
Competition Will Benefit Consumers
The rivalry between Apple, Samsung, and Huawei will likely accelerate innovation and improve foldable durability.
Foldables May Replace Traditional Premium Phones
Over time, foldable devices could become the standard choice for high-end smartphone buyers.
The Biggest Risk Is Price
If Apple launches an extremely expensive foldable iPhone, adoption could remain limited despite strong interest.
Software Will Decide the Winner
Hardware alone will not determine success. The best foldable experience will come from optimized software.
2026 Could Become the Turning Point
The smartphone industry may remember 2026 as the year foldables officially entered the mainstream.
✅ Counterpoint Research reported expected growth in foldable smartphone shipments: The forecast discussed in the article predicts approximately 21% year-over-year growth in global foldable shipments during 2026.
✅ Samsung is expected to remain a leading foldable manufacturer: Current industry trends support Samsung’s continued strength due to its long-standing presence in foldable devices.
❌ Apple’s foldable iPhone is not officially confirmed: The market share prediction depends on Apple releasing a foldable device, but Apple has not publicly announced such a product.
Prediction
(+1) Apple Could Accelerate the Foldable Smartphone Revolution
If Apple launches a foldable iPhone successfully, the entire category could experience rapid growth. Millions of existing iPhone users may adopt foldable devices, pushing manufacturers to invest more heavily in flexible technology.
(+1) AI Could Make Foldables More Valuable
As AI features become central to smartphone experiences, larger foldable displays could become increasingly useful for productivity, creativity, and personal assistance.
(-1) High Prices Could Limit Adoption
Foldable smartphones may remain luxury products if manufacturers cannot reduce costs. Apple’s premium pricing strategy could increase interest but also prevent mass-market adoption.
(-1) Samsung Could Lose Its Leadership Position
Samsung’s early advantage may shrink if Apple delivers a highly polished foldable iPhone with strong ecosystem integration.
(+1) The Smartphone Industry Could Enter a New Growth Cycle
After years of slow smartphone innovation, foldables combined with AI could create the next major wave of device upgrades.
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