Global Markets, AI, and the Trump Effect: A Deep Dive with Rothschild CIO Nicolas Bickel

Introduction: A World Shaped by Uncertainty and Innovation

In a world where political tweets can shake markets and artificial intelligence reshapes industries overnight, staying grounded as an investor is more complex than ever. Nicolas Bickel, Chief Investment Officer at Edmond de Rothschild Bank, offers an illuminating perspective on how politics, innovation, and global economic shifts intersect. In this revealing interview, conducted during his visit to Israel, Bickel discusses the Trump administration’s unpredictable economic impact, the resilience of American tech giants amid growing competition, and where the real investment opportunities lie.

📌 The Key Takeaways from Bickel’s Market Outlook

Bickel emphasizes that modern markets are increasingly driven by political media rather than traditional economic data. He introduces the trending market strategy “TACO” – “Trump Always Chickens Out” – highlighting how investors bet on Trump reversing bold policy moves. Despite his unpredictability, Bickel believes Trump will lean toward economic pragmatism ahead of midterm elections to maintain political support, potentially leading to a late-year market surge.

He critiques the Trump-era shift away from globalized production, suggesting it has unsettled the global economic order. Still, he sees U.S. economic fundamentals as resilient, despite looming risks of recession due to tax cuts unaccompanied by revenue increases. Bickel stresses the importance of staying invested, especially during market volatility, echoing Warren Buffett’s principle that markets reward patience.

Regarding AI, Bickel argues that even cheaper AI alternatives, like China’s DeepSeek, ultimately benefit U.S. tech giants by expanding the market and increasing demand. He remains skeptical of China’s transparency and urges investors to be cautious about Chinese data.

Bickel suggests remaining invested in adaptive companies, particularly in the U.S., where innovation and AI investment are strong. He warns that American stocks are priced at a premium but justified by superior growth potential. European markets are adjusting to geopolitical challenges, and emerging markets heavily reliant on exports should be approached cautiously.

He also notes that figures like Elon Musk risk damaging their brands by overt political involvement, which can alienate parts of the market.

🧠 What Undercode Say:

Political Volatility as a Market Driver

Trump’s unpredictable policies are creating new strategies for investors, such as TACO, that treat his flip-flops as predictable in their own way. The modern financial landscape appears less tied to fundamentals and more reactive to the geopolitical stage—especially in the U.S. Bickel’s analysis aligns with Undercode’s belief that political risk is becoming central to investment decisions.

AI Innovation: Threat or Opportunity?

Despite noise about cheaper AI models from China, the real winners remain U.S. tech titans. Why? Infrastructure ownership. OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon not only lead in innovation but also control the computing backbone. Cheaper competition simply widens the audience, eventually circling revenue back to those infrastructure holders. Undercode’s research supports Bickel’s stance that the democratization of AI doesn’t cannibalize demand—it supercharges it.

Globalization in Reverse

Bickel touches on a major thesis: the reversal of globalization. Trump’s “America First” policy is shifting global supply chains and investment logic. This reshaping may create opportunities in regions increasing domestic production or investing in self-sufficiency, such as parts of Europe. The U.S. may remain strong, but not without volatility.

Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times

Staying in the market is a key message. Missing top trading days drastically reduces returns—a compelling argument for long-term investment even in turbulent times. Undercode notes this is a timeless lesson often ignored during fear cycles.

Sector Rotation and Risk Management

Bickel’s guidance to focus on defensive sectors, adaptable companies, and proactive portfolio management is both prudent and aligned with Undercode’s risk models. Sectors that pass inflationary costs to consumers or benefit from rate changes—like banks—are positioned well, provided rate shifts occur as expected.

Europe and Emerging Markets

His caution on export-reliant emerging markets and optimism on Europe’s changing fiscal posture are strategic points. Undercode believes that regional diversification and careful country selection will be essential in the next market cycle. Europe’s response to energy, defense, and infrastructure needs could indeed reveal new growth pockets.

✅ Fact Checker Results

Trump’s economic unpredictability ✅ True — historical reversals confirm the TACO theory.
China’s DeepSeek model vs. OpenAI ✅ True — it uses existing U.S.-based infrastructure (e.g., Nvidia).
Missed best trading days affect returns ✅ True — widely supported by market data and academic studies.

🔮 Prediction: AI-Driven Bull Run Amid Political Drama 🚀

Undercode anticipates that despite geopolitical instability and upcoming U.S. elections, the tech sector—especially AI infrastructure and service providers—will continue to outperform through 2025. Market sentiment may sway with every headline, but long-term capital will likely consolidate around scalable AI solutions, productivity-enhancing platforms, and resilient defensive stocks. A politically driven market correction could serve as an entry point for long-term investors.