Nintendo Bets Big on Switch 2: Launch Plans, Sales Forecasts & Global Challenges

Nintendo, the legendary Japanese gaming powerhouse, is preparing to launch the highly anticipated successor to its best-selling console — the Switch 2 — on June 5. With over 150 million units sold of the original hybrid console, expectations for the new generation are soaring. However, Nintendo’s own forecasts reveal cautious optimism, as global economic shifts and trade tensions cast a shadow over what should be a triumphant release.

The gaming world has evolved dramatically since the original Switch debuted in 2017. The pandemic era gave the device a unique boost, cementing its place in gaming history. Now, the Switch 2 arrives into a market hungry for innovation but wary of inflation, pricing strategies, and international trade tariffs. Despite robust pre-orders, especially in Japan, Nintendo is navigating these complexities with measured steps.

Below is a full breakdown of Nintendo’s strategy, performance, projections, and what this launch means for the broader gaming industry.

Nintendo’s Switch 2 Plans and Projections — Key Developments

Switch 2 Release Date: June 5, with a global rollout expected.
Sales Forecast: Nintendo aims to sell 15 million units in the current financial year — slightly below analyst expectations of 16.8 million.
Previous Console Performance: The original Switch has sold around 150 million units since 2017, making it the third-best-selling console ever.
Current Hardware Sales Drop: Only 10.8 million units sold in the last fiscal year, marking a 31.2% decline from the year before.
Software Sales: Fell by 22.2% year-over-year to 155.4 million units.
Full-Year Profit Drop: Net profit fell 43.2% to 278.8 billion usd (\$1.9 billion).
Projected Recovery: Nintendo forecasts a net profit of 300 billion usd for the current fiscal year.
US Tariff Concerns: Ongoing US trade tariffs — potentially linked to policies from former President Donald Trump — are flagged as a risk to profitability.
Manufacturing Shift: To reduce tariff exposure, Nintendo is moving over 70% of Switch 2 production to Vietnam from China.
Pricing Strategy: The Switch 2 is priced at \$449.99 in the US, about a third more than the original. A Japan-only model will cost 49,980 usd (approx. \$350).
Pre-Order Buzz: Strong demand for pre-orders in Japan; the US launch was delayed two weeks for tariff reassessment.
Hardware Upgrades: The Switch 2 boasts a 7.9-inch display, 8x more memory, and magnetic detachable controllers with PC-mouse functionality.
New Features: Players can temporarily share games with friends, enabling cooperative gaming experiences.
Competitive Landscape: The delay of GTA VI to 2026 eases competitive pressure, giving Nintendo an advantageous window in late 2025.
Diversification Moves: Nintendo is expanding into theme parks and movies but still gets 90% of its revenue from the gaming business.
Analyst Perspective: Experts see Nintendo’s price rigidity as a long-term strength, despite market fluctuations.
Gamer Sentiment: High anticipation, but pricing and tariffs may impact broader market adoption.
Strategic Timing: Holiday 2025 is shaping up to be dominated by Nintendo, not Sony, due to the GTA VI delay.
Long-Term Market Influence: The Switch 2 could reshape handheld-console dynamics once again if adoption mirrors the original Switch trajectory.

What Undercode Say:

Nintendo’s launch strategy for the Switch 2 reflects a nuanced understanding of both global market conditions and consumer behavior. While on the surface, a 15 million unit forecast may seem underwhelming, it aligns with a conservative approach rooted in macroeconomic caution. The company is clearly hedging against unpredictable trade tensions, especially with regard to US tariffs, which could inflate costs and deter buyers.

The decision to hike the console’s price — now at \$449.99 in the US — might alienate some budget-conscious gamers, but it’s also a reflection of inflation, hardware upgrades, and a stronger feature set. Historically, Nintendo has been reluctant to discount its hardware, and this consistency in pricing supports brand integrity even in volatile markets.

Nintendo’s production shift from China to Vietnam is not only about avoiding tariffs but also about reducing geopolitical risk — a trend we’ve seen across multiple industries. This move also aligns with the tech sector’s broader “China+1” strategy, which seeks to diversify supply chains to more stable and cost-effective countries.

The tech upgrades — including a larger display, significantly more memory, and detachable magnetic controllers — suggest a hybrid evolution rather than a revolution. Nintendo isn’t reinventing the wheel but refining it. These upgrades target both casual users and dedicated gamers who want a seamless blend of portability and performance.

The temporary game sharing feature introduces a smart social dimension. In a world where multiplayer gaming and community engagement drive loyalty, this is a savvy addition. It may also signal that Nintendo is testing broader cloud-based or subscription-based game access models.

A major competitive factor in Nintendo’s favor is the delayed launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. Without Rockstar’s mega-title vying for attention during the 2025 holiday season, the Switch 2 is poised to dominate. Analysts recognize that this timing could cement the Switch 2’s early market lead before Sony’s push in 2026.

Still, there are risks. The pricing strategy may backfire in emerging markets where affordability is key. And while Nintendo fans are famously loyal, the casual market — which drove much of the original Switch’s success during the pandemic — may not upgrade immediately.

Ultimately, Nintendo is playing a strategic long game. It’s investing in platform longevity, consistent pricing, and smart feature enhancements rather than betting on a flashy rebrand. That measured confidence might be exactly what’s needed in an increasingly unpredictable tech and gaming economy.