Nintendo Sets Bold Sales Target for Switch 2 Amid Industry Headwinds

Nintendo is gearing up for one of the most critical product launches in its recent history: the release of the Switch 2. With the first official sales forecast now public, the Japanese gaming giant is setting ambitious expectations for both the console and its financial performance. The Switch 2 will mark a generational leap in Nintendo’s hardware lineup and is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the company’s trajectory through 2026.

Nintendo has projected sales of 15 million units for the upcoming Switch 2 console in the fiscal year ending March 2026. This estimation came as part of the company’s latest financial disclosures and indicates a high level of confidence in the new console’s market appeal. The Switch 2 is scheduled for release in June 2025, meaning Nintendo expects to sell those 15 million units in just around 9 months.

In contrast, 10.8 million units of the original Switch were sold during the prior fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 — a drop that’s in line with expectations, as many consumers opted to delay purchases in anticipation of the new hardware.

Nintendo also outlined financial goals for the 2026 fiscal year:

Net sales: 1.9 trillion usd (~$12.3 billion)

Net profit: 300 billion usd (~$1.95 billion)

These figures represent substantial year-over-year growth, driven largely by the Switch 2 launch and the surrounding software ecosystem.

The Switch 2 will launch in the United States at \$449.99, featuring notable hardware upgrades. While full specifications haven’t been disclosed, industry analysts expect enhanced performance, better visuals, and improved battery life—likely targeting parity or near-parity with current-gen handheld-capable hardware.

Nintendo’s Q4 FY2025 financial results were down year-over-year, with both revenue and profit decreasing. This dip was largely expected, as customers paused purchases of the aging Switch system in favor of waiting for the newer model.

However, not all is smooth sailing. One major challenge on the horizon is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, especially for electronics manufactured in Vietnam, where the Switch 2 is partially assembled. Nintendo has warned that any increase in tariffs could force it to raise prices, potentially affecting U.S. sales and reducing profits by tens of billions of usd.

In response to this uncertainty, Nintendo postponed the U.S. preorder launch of the Switch 2, originally scheduled for April 9. The move gives the company more time to gauge how tariff changes might influence consumer behavior and pricing strategies.

Meanwhile, competitors Microsoft and Sony have both raised the prices of their respective consoles, Xbox and PlayStation, in select global markets. This opens an opportunity for Nintendo to remain more competitively priced—provided they can navigate the tariff situation without price hikes.

What Undercode Say:

Nintendo’s 15 million unit forecast for the Switch 2 within a partial fiscal year is aggressive—but not unrealistic. Let’s analyze why:

Timing of Launch: A June 2025 release positions Nintendo well to benefit from two major seasonal waves: back-to-school and holiday 2025. These periods traditionally account for massive spikes in console sales.

Pent-Up Demand: The current Switch is nearing the end of its lifecycle. Sales have softened, not due to lack of interest, but rather delayed consumer spending—gamers are clearly waiting for the new model. This built-up demand could explode once preorders go live.

Higher Price Point: At \$449.99, the Switch 2 is Nintendo’s most expensive console to date. While this may cause sticker shock among casual gamers, loyal Nintendo fans and core gamers are likely to pay the premium, especially if the new hardware delivers a substantial upgrade.

Software Lineup (Pending): Nintendo has not yet unveiled its launch or launch-window titles. However, if a flagship title—such as a new Zelda, Mario, or Pokémon—accompanies the hardware, the console’s initial sales could match or surpass Switch’s original launch momentum.

Tariff Risks:

Competition & Positioning: With Sony and Microsoft adjusting prices upwards, Nintendo could fill a value-based niche, even with its higher MSRP, thanks to its hybrid format and exclusive IPs.

Investor Confidence: Nintendo’s broader financial forecast—1.9 trillion usd in revenue and 300 billion usd in profit—signals strong internal confidence. These aren’t conservative projections; they suggest the company believes Switch 2 can replicate or exceed the success of its predecessor.

Global Supply Chain Stability: Compared to the shortages that plagued the PS5 and Xbox Series X launches, if Nintendo secures stable supply chains for the Switch 2, it can avoid artificial scarcity and better meet demand in key markets.

In short, while there are challenges, Nintendo is preparing for a blockbuster launch, and the 15 million unit target seems well-calculated based on market signals, internal forecasts, and competitor behavior.

Fact Checker Results:

Nintendo did confirm a 15M sales target for Switch 2 in FY2026
The \$449.99 price point has been reported in credible financial media
Tariff-related risks and preorder delays have been corroborated by official company statements

Prediction:

Assuming the tariff situation remains stable and Nintendo delivers at least one major first-party title alongside or shortly after launch, Switch 2 could exceed 15 million units sold by March 2026. If demand stays strong through holiday 2025 and supply remains steady, Nintendo may hit 18–20 million units by end of fiscal year—setting the stage for another golden era for the company.

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