Tesla Q4 2024 Delivery Estimates: Analysts Anticipate Slight YoY Growth, But Focus Shifts to AI

2024-12-30

Tesla is nearing the release of its fourth-quarter 2024 vehicle delivery figures. Analysts have been offering their predictions on Tesla’s performance, with most expecting a modest year-over-year increase in deliveries. However, there’s a growing consensus that the raw numbers may hold less significance than in the past.

Analyst Estimates for Tesla Q4 2024 Deliveries

UBS analyst Joseph Spak forecasts Tesla to deliver 510,000 vehicles in Q4, representing a 5% YoY and 10% QoQ rise. This is slightly below the analyst consensus of 512,000 units.
Spak acknowledges that Tesla might not meet the consensus estimate, but downplays the importance of this quarter’s deliveries due to the company’s growing emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI). Spak maintains a “Sell” rating and a $226 price target for Tesla stock.
Barclays analysts take a more optimistic stance, predicting Tesla to deliver around 515,000 vehicles in Q4. They concur with Spak that the emphasis on pure delivery numbers has diminished.

Tesla’s Compiled Consensus and 2024 Delivery Projections

Tesla’s own consensus forecast anticipates 506,763 deliveries in Q4 2024.
This breaks down to 476,398 deliveries for the Model 3 and Model Y, and 31,755 deliveries for other models.
Based on these figures, Tesla is on track to report a total of 1,801,709 deliveries worldwide for the entire year of 2024.
This represents a slight decline from the 1,808,581 vehicles delivered globally in 2023.

What Undercode Says:

The upcoming Tesla Q4 delivery report is generating interest, but the focus seems to be shifting away from pure delivery numbers. Here are some key takeaways:

Analysts generally expect modest YoY growth in

The emphasis on raw delivery figures seems to be waning, with analysts acknowledging the growing importance of Tesla’s AI endeavors.

This shift in focus reflects

The

Delivery Growth vs. AI Focus: A Changing Landscape for Tesla

While Tesla’s delivery numbers remain a noteworthy metric, the industry appears to be placing more weight on the company’s AI strategy. This transition highlights a few critical points:

Tesla’s Maturation: As Tesla scales production and deliveries, raw numbers may become less indicative of the company’s overall health and future potential.
The Rise of AI in Transportation: The focus on AI underscores the growing significance of autonomous driving, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and other AI-powered technologies in the automotive industry. Tesla is a frontrunner in this domain, and its advancements in AI could be a major differentiator.
Investor Considerations: Investors are likely looking beyond just near-term deliveries and increasingly appraising Tesla’s long-term vision and capabilities in AI.

Tesla’s AI Day events have generated significant interest, showcasing the company’s progress in Dojo supercomputers, self-driving technologies, and neural networks. These advancements have the potential to revolutionize the transportation landscape, and investors are keen to gauge Tesla’s position in this evolving landscape.

In conclusion, while Tesla’s Q4 delivery report is of interest, the narrative surrounding the company seems to be shifting towards its AI strategy. As Tesla matures and the transportation industry embraces AI, investors are likely prioritizing the company’s long-term vision and its potential to lead the AI revolution in the automotive sector.