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Unveiling a Decade of Botnet Behavior Through Honeypot Data
Over the past decade, the cybersecurity community has waged a continuous battle against automated botnets that attempt to brute-force access to systems via protocols like SSH and Telnet. These brute-force attacks target known default credentials and common password combinations in the hope of gaining unauthorized access. Recently, researchers took a deeper dive into data gathered from honeypotsâdecoy systems designed to lure and monitor attackersâto uncover how brute-force strategies have evolved over time.
This investigation focused on a simple yet telling question: are botnets getting smarter by optimizing their attack lists, or are they just growing bigger and noisier? The findings are insightful for anyone in cybersecurity, especially network defenders and SOC analysts tracking brute-force patterns across global attack surfaces.
A Decade of Data Shows Tactical Shifts in Botnet Brute-Forcing
The dataset, collected from SSH and Telnet honeypots over nearly ten years, was analyzed to understand how brute-force password attacks have changed. Looking at information dating back to 2018âchosen due to more reliable data consistencyâresearchers found that each attacking source IP initially attempted about 10 to 20 different username/password combinations. In more recent years, that number has climbed significantly, with many bots now trying approximately 50 unique credential combinations per attack.
This jump suggests a broadening strategy by botnets rather than a shift towards more precision. Instead of becoming more selective, these automated attacks appear to be throwing a wider net, perhaps hoping to land on the right combination by sheer volume.
The study also explored whether the complexity of passwords being tested had increased over time. Surprisingly, the average length of passwords remained relatively stable at around eight characters. There was a brief spike in complexity during late 2018 and early 2019, but this turned out to be an anomaly rather than a trend.
Interestingly, even complex default passwords like 3245gs5662d34 frequently appear in scans. These long, non-obvious strings are often pre-installed in widely distributed devices, such as IP cameras, making them high-priority targets for botnets. This supports the idea that attackers are not necessarily after complexity but are instead chasing default credentials that remain unchanged across many systems.
In the end, brute-force behavior remains mostly static in terms of sophistication. The number of combinations has grown, but the core strategyâtrying lots of known or predictable credentials quicklyâremains unchanged. This highlights a key weakness in systems still relying on default or weak passwords, even in an era of multi-factor authentication and advanced threat detection.
What Undercode Say:
Botnets Still Rely on Volume Over Intelligence
The findings confirm that while the scale of attacks has expanded, the underlying methodology remains largely unchanged. Botnets are not evolving to be more surgical; they are simply becoming louder and more persistent. This tells us that defenders shouldnât expect brute-force attacks to get smarterâat least not yetâbut they must prepare for them to get faster and broader.
The Mirage of Password Complexity
Despite security policies urging complex passwords, attackers are not deterred by strings that look secure. Default passwords, even long and randomized ones, remain top targets if theyâre publicly known or hardcoded into devices. This undercuts the idea that complexity alone is a sufficient defense. The contextâdefault use, exposure, and common device deploymentsâis just as critical.
Telnet and SSH Remain Prime Targets
Though considered legacy by many, Telnet and SSH services remain popular vectors for attack, largely because theyâre still widely deployed in IoT devices and older infrastructure. Botnets like Mirai, which famously weaponized these weaknesses, continue to influence newer variants with similar tactics.
Defense Must Focus on Defaults and Exposure
What these stats emphasize is that protection isnât just about stronger passwords but about eliminating reliance on defaults and closing exposed access. The surge in username/password combinations reflects a persistent assumption by attackers: that many systems are either misconfigured or poorly maintained.
Static Complexity, Dynamic Volume
The average password length hasnât evolved much because attackers donât need it to. Most targets fall within the 8-character sweet spot, and thatâs where the effort is focused. Whatâs growing is the size of the dictionary used in brute-force attacks, not its depth or sophistication.
The Mirage of Anomaly in 2019
That slight spike in average password length in late 2018 and early 2019 is more likely the result of noise in the dataset or a short-lived shift in one or two major botnets. It was not sustained or indicative of a broader strategy shift. This demonstrates the importance of long-term data to distinguish real trends from anomalies.
Credential Hygiene Remains the Achillesâ Heel
The data reinforces one of the oldest truths in cybersecurity: default and weak credentials are still the easiest way in. And as long as systems are deployed with known default logins, botnets will continue to exploit them using brute-force tactics.
Automation Outpaces Analysis
The ease with which bots can attempt dozens of combinations in seconds far outpaces most defensive logging and alerting systems. That gap allows brute-force attacks to fly under the radar unless specific monitoring is implemented.
An Evolving Threat Without Evolved Tactics
Brute-force attacks are a perfect example of a threat that evolves in volume, not intelligence. This means the most effective defensesânetwork segmentation, access control, credential rotation, and proper hardeningâremain static but vital.
đ Fact Checker Results:
â
Default credentials like “3245gs5662d34” are real and widely targeted in brute-force attacks
â
The number of username/password combinations attempted per IP has increased since 2018
â There is no long-term trend of increasing password complexity among brute-force attempts
đ Prediction:
With the continued proliferation of IoT and smart devices, brute-force attacks will likely become even more aggressive in scope. Expect bots to attempt 100+ combinations per session by 2026, especially as they integrate AI to optimize their dictionaries. Still, complexity in attack patterns will remain low, focusing instead on common configurations and mass exposure. đĄď¸đť
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Reported By: isc.sans.edu
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