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The race to dominate autonomous vehicles is heating up, and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla is sounding the alarm for Google to massively boost investment in Waymo, its self-driving car division. Khosla, co-founder of Sun Microsystems and a prominent tech investor, believes the robotaxi market could eventually eclipse Google’s flagship search business in revenue potential. This bold claim comes amid new data showing Waymo’s rapid market share growth in San Francisco, signaling a shift in urban mobility that could redefine the tech giant’s business landscape.
Over the last twenty months, Waymo has gone from a near-zero presence to commanding up to 27% of San Francisco’s rideshare market—a remarkable ascent that has seen it surpass Lyft in gross bookings and put Uber squarely in its sights. According to estimates by YipitData, Waymo’s share climbed steadily from August 2023 through April 2025, while Uber and Lyft’s dominance weakened. This rapid expansion is supported by Waymo’s impressive scale: it now completes about 250,000 paid rides weekly across Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. The company recently celebrated hitting 10 million lifetime rides and then doubled that achievement in just five months.
Khosla points to the compelling economics behind autonomous vehicles. Compared to traditional human-driven cars, self-driving technology promises a superior consumer experience, lower costs, greater scalability, and higher predictability. These advantages could make robotaxis the backbone of future urban transportation. While Google’s search revenue last quarter was a staggering \$50.7 billion, Khosla argues that the autonomous vehicle market offers a potentially larger, untapped opportunity for Alphabet’s growth.
Waymo’s progress is more than just a technological milestone; it’s a clear signal that autonomous vehicles can operate profitably at scale in major cities, fundamentally reshaping how people move and how companies generate revenue. If Google seizes this moment with bold investment, it might transform its business far beyond the search engine that made it a tech titan.
What Undercode Say:
Waymo’s rapid climb in the autonomous rideshare market is a fascinating case study in how emerging technology can disrupt established industries—and even overshadow a company’s core business. Google’s search engine has long been its cash cow, but the plateauing growth and fierce competition in search make the autonomous vehicle sector a tempting frontier. Khosla’s call for Google to pour tens of billions annually into Waymo is ambitious but underscores the high stakes involved.
Autonomous driving offers unique scalability: once the technology is perfected and regulatory hurdles are cleared, deploying robotaxis requires less human labor, fewer operational risks, and offers a consistent, controlled user experience. These factors could dramatically lower costs compared to human-driven rideshare services. The ability to rapidly scale across multiple cities with minimal incremental costs could turn Waymo into a massive revenue generator.
However, significant challenges remain. Waymo must navigate complex regulatory environments, public safety concerns, and intense competition not only from legacy rideshare giants but also from other autonomous vehicle startups. Additionally, public acceptance of driverless cars is still growing, and incidents involving self-driving technology could slow momentum.
Yet, the data from San Francisco is compelling. To gain nearly a third of the rideshare market in less than two years is unprecedented. Waymo’s growth in bookings quadrupling since late 2023 highlights both consumer demand and operational maturity. These numbers suggest Waymo is not just a futuristic experiment but a viable commercial service reshaping urban transportation.
From an investment perspective, Google’s advantage is its massive capital reserves and vast data ecosystem, which can feed machine learning and AI advancements critical for autonomous driving. If Google leverages these strengths and invests aggressively, it could solidify Waymo’s dominance before competitors scale.
The road ahead isn’t free of obstacles—technological, regulatory, and social—but the potential payoff is enormous. Autonomous vehicles could revolutionize everything from urban congestion to environmental impact, redefining mobility for millions. In this light, Google’s autonomous vehicle journey is not just a sideline project; it could be the company’s next defining chapter.
Fact Checker Results:
✅ Waymo’s market share growth from near zero to 27% in San Francisco over 20 months is supported by independent data from YipitData.
✅ Google’s search revenue at \$50.7 billion last quarter aligns with Alphabet’s official financial reports.
❌ There is no current public confirmation that Waymo will surpass Uber nationwide within 12 months—this remains a projection based on current trends.
📊 Prediction:
The autonomous vehicle sector, led by players like Waymo, is poised for explosive growth in the next five years. If Google heeds Khosla’s advice and invests heavily, Waymo could become the premier urban mobility platform, potentially generating revenues that rival or exceed its search business. Widespread adoption of robotaxis may trigger a domino effect, accelerating the decline of traditional rideshare companies and disrupting the global automotive industry. However, regulatory challenges and consumer trust remain the biggest hurdles. The next 24 months will be critical for Waymo’s positioning—either cementing its lead or opening doors for fierce competitors.
References:
Reported By: timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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