Apple and Google's $20B Search Deal Faces Uncertainty Amid Declining Safari Usage and Rise of AI

Apple’s longstanding partnership with Google, worth an estimated \$20 billion annually, is facing serious headwinds as user behavior shifts and regulatory pressures mount. For the first time in over two decades, searches through Apple’s Safari browser have declined, a development disclosed in court by Apple’s Senior Vice President of Services, Eddy Cue. This shift is more than a statistical anomaly—it may signal a seismic disruption in how users search the web, with AI tools now emerging as genuine contenders.

The deal between Apple and Google makes Google the default search engine on Safari, giving Google massive reach and giving Apple a hefty chunk of revenue. But that deal is now in the crosshairs of a U.S. antitrust case against Google. Meanwhile, Apple is not sitting idle. Cue revealed that Apple is exploring integrations with AI-powered search tools like Perplexity and ChatGPT. While these options aren’t ready to replace Google as the default, they represent Apple’s clear awareness of shifting tides.

The antitrust case—led by the U.S. Department of Justice—could result in drastic changes, including forced data-sharing or even structural changes to Google’s business. All this adds uncertainty to a partnership that has defined web search on Apple devices for years.

Summary ()

Apple and Google have a \$20 billion/year agreement that sets Google as the default Safari search engine.
This partnership is a major revenue source for Apple and a key element of Google’s dominance in online search.
Apple’s Eddy Cue testified during Google’s antitrust trial that he’s deeply concerned about the future of this deal.
For the first time in over 22 years, Safari searches declined—highlighting a historic shift in user behavior.
Cue attributes the dip to the growing popularity of AI-powered search tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Anthropic.
AI engines are beginning to change how users seek and receive information online, often skipping traditional search engines.
Apple is in active talks with AI search providers and is considering deeper Safari integrations with them.
Despite interest in AI tools, Apple does not see them ready to replace Google as the default due to quality and user experience issues.
Apple already offers ChatGPT integration via Siri, signaling openness to expanding AI search access.
Judge Amit Mehta recently ruled that Google engaged in illegal monopolistic behavior through deals like the Safari partnership.
The U.S. Department of Justice may impose remedies, including requiring Google to share search data or break up parts of its business.
These changes could significantly disrupt Google’s hold on the search market.
Cue believes the rise of AI will open the market to more competition and innovation.
He notes that the financial benefit of the Google deal is still unmatched by any AI player.
However, the market is evolving rapidly, with new competitors gaining traction.
The Safari search decline serves as a wake-up call for both Apple and Google.
It marks a rare disruption to long-standing user behavior patterns.
AI tools offer faster, more conversational answers, reshaping user expectations.
Apple seems ready to embrace this change—carefully, and without risking its financial backbone.
The \$20B deal’s future depends not just on court rulings, but also on how fast AI search improves.
Cue emphasized Apple’s flexibility and readiness to adapt to a changing ecosystem.
Google, meanwhile, risks losing one of its largest default placement deals.
The broader search landscape may be on the brink of diversification.
Safari may eventually offer users multiple powerful search options by default.
Regulatory and technological forces are now converging, pressuring the once-stable alliance.
Even if Google wins short-term reprieves, long-term dominance looks less certain.
Apple is watching the AI space closely and making strategic partnerships as a hedge.
The era of AI-driven search may soon rewrite the rules of online discovery.
If Safari usage continues to drop, Apple may be forced to accelerate its pivot.
Both tech giants now face a new frontier—one shaped by innovation, litigation, and changing consumer habits.

What Undercode Say:

Apple’s \$20B partnership with Google has long served as the gold standard of lucrative tech deals, aligning two giants whose interests were mutually beneficial—until now. The revelation that Safari searches declined for the first time in 22 years is not merely a bump in usage metrics; it’s a signal of deep behavioral change among users, likely triggered by the speed and precision of AI-based tools.

Let’s unpack the strategic implications. Apple is a services-first company now. Revenue from hardware is stabilizing; growth must come from digital services. The Google deal has been central to that strategy. But with regulatory threats and technological alternatives rising, Apple is caught between financial dependency and the need to innovate.

Cue’s remarks in court underline the tension. On one hand, he admits AI search isn’t yet a viable replacement; on the other, Apple is already courting AI alternatives. This dual-track strategy—maintaining the lucrative status quo while quietly laying groundwork for disruption—is classic Apple. They don’t move fast; they move decisively when the time is right.

AI’s evolution as a search mechanism is still nascent but rapidly improving. Tools like Perplexity are already delivering rich, context-aware answers without ten blue links. ChatGPT and Anthropic are redefining information retrieval. If Apple can integrate these experiences into Safari in a way that doesn’t compromise performance or privacy, it could change the browser landscape overnight.

Regulators add another layer of complexity. If the DOJ forces changes to Google’s business model—like mandatory data-sharing or browser spin-offs—the existing Apple-Google arrangement could be invalidated or significantly restructured. This would create a rare opening for new players to negotiate default placement deals with Apple, perhaps on more favorable or diversified terms.

There’s also the question of consumer behavior. Users are beginning to expect answers, not results. That’s what AI search provides. If Apple wants to stay ahead of the curve, it must adopt and adapt—whether through partnerships, acquisitions, or internal development.

In the long term, we foresee Safari offering hybrid models: Google, AI, maybe even a personalized assistant-style search option. The browser may transform from a static search bar into a dynamic, AI-augmented gateway.

Undercode’s verdict: Apple is preparing for life after Google—not because it wants to, but because the market and regulators are making it inevitable. The company will remain cautious in its pivot, but don’t mistake caution for inaction. When the shift comes, it will be deliberate and well-capitalized.

Fact Checker Results:

The \$20B Google-Apple search deal has been confirmed by multiple legal and financial sources.
Safari search decline is verified through trial testimony by Eddy Cue.
AI search competition involving ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Anthropic is publicly acknowledged by Apple.

Prediction

By 2026, Apple will likely present a multi-search engine interface within Safari, featuring at least one AI-native search tool as a prominent alternative. Google may remain the default short-term, but regulatory pressure and user preferences will push Apple to diversify. Expect Siri’s AI integrations to deepen, and Safari to evolve into a smart portal—not just a browser.