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A New Chapter for the iPhone
Apple’s long-awaited move into foldable smartphones is no longer just a distant rumor. With Apple officially scheduled to hold its next major iPhone event on September 9, 2026, expectations are rising that the company will finally unveil its first foldable iPhone. The launch would represent one of Apple’s most significant hardware changes in years, arriving at a time when the broader smartphone market is struggling but foldables are emerging as an unusual pocket of growth.
The Forecast That Changes the Conversation
According to IDC, Apple could ship more than 10 million foldable iPhones during the product’s first year of availability, despite reports that the device could carry a price near $2,500. IDC’s latest research is even more bullish on the broader category, forecasting foldable smartphone shipments to grow 12.6% in 2026 and another 18% in 2027.
Apple’s September 9 Moment
Apple has officially confirmed September 9 as the date for its next major product event at the Steve Jobs Theater in Apple Park. The event is expected to introduce the next generation of iPhones, with the foldable model widely anticipated to be one of the headline products. The timing is especially significant because John Ternus is scheduled to take over as Apple CEO on September 1, making the event one of the first major demonstrations of Apple’s next leadership era.
Why a $2,500 iPhone Could Still Sell Millions
A $2,500 smartphone sounds extreme when compared with conventional flagship phones, but foldables occupy a different part of the market. The devices combine smartphone functionality with a much larger internal display, and manufacturers have increasingly positioned book-style foldables as productivity machines rather than simple luxury gadgets.
Counterpoint Research says the foldable market is becoming increasingly premium, with devices priced above $1,600 expected to represent about 60% of foldable shipments in 2026. That means Apple would not necessarily be entering a market where consumers are primarily looking for inexpensive hardware. Instead, it would be entering a category where high prices are already part of the business model.
The Book-Style Design Is Taking Over
Apple is reportedly preparing a book-style foldable rather than a compact flip phone. That distinction matters because book-style devices provide a large internal screen when opened, creating an experience closer to carrying a small tablet and smartphone in one device.
Counterpoint Research previously forecast that book-type foldables would account for around 65% of global foldable shipments in 2026, up from 52% in 2025. Its later research raised the projected share to 76%, showing just how quickly the market is moving toward larger, productivity-focused foldables.
Apple Is Entering a Market That Has Already Matured
Apple is not creating the foldable category from scratch. Samsung, Huawei, Google and other manufacturers have spent years developing hinges, flexible displays, multitasking software and durability improvements.
That could actually work in Apple’s favor. The company can study the strengths and weaknesses of earlier foldables and enter when consumers are more familiar with the concept. Instead of convincing people that foldable phones are possible, Apple may only need to convince them that its version is worth the premium.
Samsung’s Lead Could Suddenly Be Under Pressure
Samsung has been one of the most recognizable names in foldables, building the Galaxy Z Fold and Galaxy Z Flip families into established premium products. The Galaxy Z Fold 8, for example, starts at $1,899 for its base configuration according to the source article.
An Apple foldable priced substantially higher would therefore not compete primarily on affordability. It would compete through ecosystem integration, brand loyalty, software, camera capabilities, services and the perceived value of owning an iPhone with a completely new form factor.
IDC Sees Foldables as the Smartphone Market’s Bright Spot
The most striking part of IDC’s latest research is not simply Apple’s forecast. It is the contrast between foldables and the wider smartphone industry.
IDC currently expects global smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026 to just over one billion units, the steepest annual contraction it has recorded. Yet foldables are forecast to grow 12.6% to approximately 22.9 million units.
A Shrinking Smartphone Market Makes Apple’s Move More Important
The smartphone industry is facing an unusual combination of declining unit shipments and rising prices. IDC expects smartphone average selling prices to rise sharply as memory shortages increase component costs.
That creates an environment where premium products can become disproportionately important. Apple already has a strong position in the high-end smartphone market, so a foldable iPhone could allow the company to capture even more value without needing to sell enormous volumes.
The 10 Million Figure Needs Context
The forecast of more than 10 million shipments should not be interpreted as 10 million devices sold immediately after launch. IDC’s estimate covers the foldable iPhone’s first year of availability.
That distinction is important because the product is expected to launch late in 2026. A substantial portion of its first-year sales could therefore occur during 2027 rather than the final months of 2026.
Apple Could Become a Major Foldable Player Almost Overnight
IDC’s broader forecast is even more ambitious. It expects Apple to ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027 and capture roughly 40% of the global foldable market.
At an average selling price above $2,550, IDC estimates that Apple could generate more than $45.7 billion in value from foldable iPhones during that period.
Counterpoint Also Sees a Major Apple Effect
Counterpoint Research has independently reached an optimistic conclusion about Apple’s impact. Its research projected that Apple could capture 28% of the global foldable smartphone market in 2026 and 46% in North America during its first year.
The company also argues that Apple’s entry could move foldables further away from being an experimental niche and toward becoming mainstream premium devices.
Apple’s Real Advantage May Be the Ecosystem
The biggest advantage for Apple may not be the hinge, screen or thickness of the hardware. It could be the ecosystem surrounding the device.
An iPhone user already has access to iCloud, Messages, FaceTime, Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple services and a huge collection of optimized applications. A foldable iPhone could therefore become a natural upgrade for existing customers rather than requiring Apple to build an entirely new customer base.
The Upgrade Cycle Could Be Powerful
There is a large group of iPhone owners who have never had an Apple foldable option. For those users, the launch could create a completely new upgrade motivation.
Instead of asking whether the latest iPhone camera is better than last year’s camera, customers could suddenly be choosing between a traditional iPhone and a device that opens into a substantially larger display.
Large Screens Are Becoming More Useful
The larger internal display is not simply about watching videos. Foldables are increasingly being positioned around multitasking, productivity and AI-assisted workflows.
Counterpoint notes that wider foldable displays can make it easier to keep source material, AI-generated output and the next action visible at the same time. This could become increasingly important as smartphones move from simple AI assistants toward systems capable of completing more complex tasks.
AI Could Give Foldables a Stronger Reason to Exist
Artificial intelligence may provide the most convincing argument yet for larger smartphone screens.
If an AI assistant is summarizing documents, comparing information, generating content or helping users manage multiple tasks, a larger display provides more room to inspect what the system is doing. The foldable form factor could therefore evolve from a visual novelty into a more practical interface for AI-powered computing.
The $2,500 Price Is Still the Biggest Risk
Despite the bullish forecasts, the price cannot be ignored.
A reported price around $2,500 would place the device well above conventional flagship smartphones and even above many premium laptops. Apple would have to convince customers that the foldable experience is valuable enough to justify spending hundreds of dollars more than they would on a conventional iPhone.
Apple’s Premium Strategy Could Make the Price Work
Apple has repeatedly demonstrated that it can sell expensive consumer electronics when customers perceive them as desirable, useful and tightly integrated with the company’s ecosystem.
The foldable iPhone could extend that strategy into a new category. Instead of trying to make foldables affordable, Apple may deliberately position the product as an ultra-premium flagship.
The Foldable Market Is Becoming More Expensive
The market data suggests Apple would not be alone in pushing prices upward. Counterpoint expects the average wholesale price of foldable smartphones to rise 18% in 2026, partly because the market is shifting toward larger and more expensive book-style products.
That means Apple’s pricing could look less unusual if premium foldables become increasingly normalized.
Samsung Still Has an Important Advantage
Samsung has something Apple does not: years of experience selling foldable phones.
The company has already learned from multiple generations of hinges, screens, software and customer feedback. It also has a broad range of foldable products and an established customer base.
Apple therefore has a major challenge ahead. Its first attempt will be compared against products that have already gone through several generations of refinement.
Apple’s Advantage Is Timing
At the same time, Apple’s late arrival could become an advantage.
The company is entering after the market has already established the basic form factor. It can potentially avoid some of the early experimentation that other manufacturers had to endure and focus on delivering a polished product that fits naturally into its ecosystem.
Supply Chain Capacity Will Matter
Selling 10 million or more foldable iPhones is very different from selling a few million experimental devices.
Flexible OLED displays, hinges, specialized components and manufacturing processes all have tighter supply constraints than conventional smartphone components. Apple will need enormous production consistency if demand exceeds expectations.
Counterpoint has already identified Apple as a major factor in the expected increase in foldable display demand during the second half of 2026.
A Successful Launch Could Affect Component Suppliers
Apple’s entry could benefit more than Apple itself.
Display manufacturers, hinge suppliers, memory companies and other component makers could see significant demand if the foldable iPhone becomes a large-volume product. A successful Apple launch could also encourage suppliers to invest more aggressively in foldable-specific production capacity.
The Impact Could Reach Android Manufacturers
Apple’s entry would force Android manufacturers to rethink their strategies.
Samsung, Google and Chinese smartphone makers could face increased pressure to improve hardware quality, software integration and pricing. A market that once depended heavily on technical experimentation could become a battle over ecosystem loyalty and premium user experience.
Apple Could Redefine What Consumers Expect From Foldables
Apple has enormous influence over consumer electronics design trends.
When Apple embraces a technology, consumers who previously ignored it often begin treating it as a mainstream category. That does not guarantee success, but it can dramatically increase awareness.
The same dynamic could happen with foldables. Apple may turn the question from “Why would anyone want a foldable?” into “Which foldable should I buy?”
The Market Could Become More Competitive, Not Less
Apple capturing 40% of foldable shipments by 2027 would represent a major restructuring of the category.
Samsung and Huawei would still have enormous strengths, but Apple could become one of the most influential players almost immediately. The result could be faster innovation across hinges, displays, batteries, cameras and foldable software.
Foldables Could Become the Premium Smartphone Standard
One of the most interesting long-term possibilities is that foldables could eventually become the premium tier’s standard form factor.
Instead of paying more for a conventional phone with incremental improvements, consumers could increasingly pay more for a device that fundamentally changes how the screen is used.
Apple’s entry would accelerate that transition.
Deep Analysis
Market Signal: The Numbers Are Larger Than the Product
IDC’s forecast suggests Apple’s foldable iPhone should not be viewed as a niche experiment. A first-year shipment projection above 10 million units would place the product in a completely different category from most first-generation Apple hardware launches.
Market Signal: Apple Is Entering at the Right Moment
The foldable market has spent years overcoming technical limitations. Displays are improving, hinges are becoming thinner and software is becoming more capable. Apple appears to be entering when the category is more mature than it was several years ago.
Market Signal: Premiumization Helps Apple
The shift toward expensive foldables is particularly favorable to Apple. The company has built its business around premium hardware, and the foldable category is increasingly moving in the same direction.
Market Signal: Book-Type Devices Matter Most
Apple’s expected book-style design aligns with the strongest structural trend in the category. Larger foldables are becoming more important because consumers increasingly see them as productivity devices rather than fashion accessories.
Market Signal: The Smartphone Downturn Creates Opportunity
A collapsing mainstream smartphone market may sound like bad news for Apple, but premium products can benefit when consumers delay cheaper upgrades and concentrate spending on devices that offer meaningful differences.
Market Signal: iOS Loyalty Could Be Decisive
Millions of existing iPhone users already understand Apple’s software ecosystem. The foldable model could give those customers a reason to upgrade that conventional yearly improvements increasingly struggle to provide.
Market Signal: Android Users Are Also in Play
Apple does not necessarily need every buyer to come from the iPhone installed base. Some premium Android foldable owners could consider switching if Apple delivers a compelling combination of hardware and software.
Market Signal: Software Could Beat Hardware
A foldable phone can have a beautiful hinge and display and still feel disappointing if applications do not use the additional screen effectively. Apple’s ability to control both hardware and software gives it a potential advantage.
Market Signal: AI Makes the Large Display More Relevant
As AI becomes more capable, the ability to review, manipulate and act on AI-generated information becomes increasingly important. Foldables provide more visual space without requiring users to carry a tablet.
Market Signal: Productivity Is the Strongest Argument
The strongest selling point may ultimately be productivity. A book-style foldable can allow users to read documents, manage email, browse information and interact with multiple applications in a way that conventional phones cannot replicate as comfortably.
Market Signal: The Price Could Filter the Audience
A $2,500 device would automatically exclude many consumers. But it could also create scarcity and exclusivity, reinforcing the product’s premium positioning.
Market Signal: High Prices Increase Expectations
The danger is that premium pricing leaves little room for weaknesses. Customers paying roughly $2,500 will expect exceptional durability, cameras, battery life, software and long-term reliability.
Market Signal: Durability Will Be Closely Watched
Foldable displays and hinges remain more mechanically complex than conventional smartphone designs. Apple will face intense scrutiny over hinge longevity, crease visibility, dust resistance and repairability.
Market Signal: Thickness Could Define the Experience
A foldable that becomes too thick when closed risks feeling more like two phones stacked together than one elegant device. Apple will need to solve the thickness problem without sacrificing battery capacity or durability.
Market Signal: Battery Technology Is Critical
A large internal display consumes more power. The company therefore needs efficient processors, aggressive software optimization and sufficient battery capacity to prevent the foldable experience from becoming a battery-management exercise.
Market Signal: The Camera System Could Decide Premium Buyers
At the highest end of the market, buyers expect flagship-level cameras. If Apple compromises heavily on camera hardware to accommodate the foldable design, some traditional iPhone customers may hesitate.
Market Signal: Accessories Could Become Another Revenue Stream
A foldable iPhone could generate additional demand for cases, protective accessories, charging equipment and other Apple ecosystem products. That creates value beyond the handset itself.
Market Signal: Services Could Strengthen the Business Case
The device could also drive subscriptions and services because premium Apple hardware tends to reinforce customer retention within the wider ecosystem.
Market Signal: Apple Does Not Need Market Dominance Immediately
Even if the foldable iPhone does not reach 40% market share, Apple could still consider the launch successful if it establishes the product as a premium category leader.
Market Signal: First-Generation Sales Will Be Closely Watched
The first year will provide Apple with critical information about demand, pricing sensitivity and which features consumers value most. A second-generation device could then become considerably more ambitious.
Market Signal: IDC’s 2027 Forecast Is More Important
The 2027 projection may be more revealing than the first-year estimate because it represents the period when Apple could have a full year of market availability and greater production scale.
Market Signal: 17 Million Units Would Be Significant
IDC’s forecast of more than 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027 would make Apple one of the largest players in the entire category, not simply a new entrant.
Market Signal: The 40% Forecast Is Aggressive
Capturing roughly 40% of a global hardware category only a year after entering it is an extremely ambitious forecast. It should be treated as a projection rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Market Signal: Counterpoint Provides Independent Support
The bullish outlook is not limited to IDC. Counterpoint has also predicted that Apple could quickly capture a substantial share of the foldable market, strengthening the argument that analysts see Apple’s entry as structurally important.
Market Signal: Analysts Agree on One Central Point
While analysts differ on exact shipment figures, the broad message is consistent: Apple’s entry could significantly expand the foldable market and accelerate competition.
Market Signal: Samsung’s Position Is Not Automatically Lost
Samsung remains a formidable competitor. Apple’s entry does not erase Samsung’s technological experience, distribution network or established foldable lineup.
Market Signal: Huawei Remains Important
Huawei has also played a major role in foldable innovation, particularly in China. Apple’s growth therefore comes in a market where several major manufacturers already have substantial expertise.
Market Signal: China Could Be a Critical Battlefield
China is one of the most advanced foldable markets, with consumers already familiar with large-screen foldable designs. Apple’s performance there could strongly influence its global shipment trajectory.
Market Signal: North America Could Favor Apple
Counterpoint’s forecast of particularly strong Apple share potential in North America reflects the company’s existing customer base and premium positioning.
Market Signal: The Category Could Become More Valuable
As Apple pushes into the segment, manufacturers may have greater incentives to produce higher-end foldables, potentially increasing average selling prices and total market revenue.
Market Signal: Suppliers Are Preparing for Scale
The expected increase in foldable panel demand suggests that Apple’s entry is already influencing supply-chain planning.
Market Signal: AI and Foldables May Reinforce Each Other
The rise of AI creates a stronger justification for larger displays, while foldables provide that larger display without forcing users to carry a separate tablet.
Market Signal: Apple Could Turn a Feature Into a Platform
The most successful outcome would not simply be a popular foldable iPhone. Apple could build a new platform around foldable-specific software, multitasking, AI interaction and accessories.
Market Signal: Developers Will Matter
The success of the product will partly depend on whether developers optimize applications for the expanded display. Apple will have to provide convincing incentives and software frameworks to make the larger screen useful.
Market Signal: Consumers Will Demand Practical Benefits
The novelty of folding a phone will wear off quickly. Long-term adoption will depend on whether users discover everyday reasons to keep opening the device.
Market Signal: The Biggest Challenge Is Justifying the Upgrade
Apple must answer a simple consumer question: what can this phone do that a conventional iPhone cannot? If the answer is compelling, the price becomes easier to defend.
Market Signal: The Biggest Opportunity Is Category Creation
Apple could succeed not because every consumer wants a foldable today, but because it can make foldables desirable to millions of people who previously had no interest in them.
Market Signal: The September Launch Could Be Historic
If Apple unveils the foldable iPhone on September 9 as expected, the company will enter one of the most closely watched hardware categories in the smartphone industry.
Market Signal: The Next Two Years Will Be Critical
The first generation will establish Apple’s presence, but the second generation could determine whether the company truly reshapes the category.
Market Signal: IDC’s Forecast Is a Warning to Competitors
A forecast of more than 17 million Apple foldables in 2027 and approximately 40% market share should be viewed by Android manufacturers as a signal that the competitive landscape may change rapidly.
Market Signal: Apple’s Foldable Could Redefine the iPhone
The iPhone has traditionally been a slab-shaped smartphone. A successful foldable would introduce a fundamentally different physical architecture while retaining the same ecosystem.
Market Signal: This Is Bigger Than One Product
Apple’s foldable strategy could influence displays, processors, software design, accessories, AI interfaces and even how consumers think about mobile computing.
Market Signal: The Real Test Begins After the Hype
The September announcement may create enormous attention, but shipment numbers, customer reviews and long-term durability will ultimately determine whether Apple has created a new mainstream category or simply an expensive technological showcase.
✅ Confirmed: Apple has officially announced its September 9, 2026 event, while multiple reputable reports expect the first foldable iPhone to be unveiled there.
✅ Confirmed: IDC currently forecasts foldable smartphone shipments to grow 12.6% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, with Apple expected to become a major driver of that growth.
❌ Not yet confirmed: The reported $2,500 price, the exact final foldable iPhone specifications and the ultimate shipment figures remain forecasts or reports until Apple officially reveals the product and its sales results.
Prediction
(+1) Apple Will Likely Make Foldables Mainstream
Apple’s entry is likely to dramatically increase consumer awareness of foldable smartphones. Even customers who never considered buying one may begin viewing the form factor as a legitimate premium alternative to conventional iPhones.
(+1) Apple Could Become a Top Foldable Manufacturer Quickly
If IDC’s projections are even approximately correct, Apple could move from having no foldable market share to becoming one of the category’s largest manufacturers within a remarkably short period.
(+1) The Premium Foldable Market Will Grow
Apple’s positioning could encourage other manufacturers to invest more heavily in high-end foldables, resulting in better displays, thinner designs, stronger hinges and more sophisticated software.
(+1) AI Will Become a Major Foldable Selling Point
As AI applications become more complex, the extra screen space offered by book-style foldables should become increasingly useful for reviewing information, comparing results and managing multiple tasks.
(-1) The Price Could Limit Mass Adoption
A device approaching $2,500 will remain inaccessible to a large portion of the smartphone market. Apple may therefore dominate the premium foldable segment without making foldables truly mainstream across all price categories.
(-1) First-Generation Hardware Could Face Problems
Foldables are mechanically complicated. Any major issue involving the hinge, display, crease, battery or durability could weaken consumer confidence and force Apple to spend heavily on warranty and support.
(+1) Apple’s Ecosystem Gives It a Strong Safety Net
Even if the foldable does not immediately become a mass-market product, Apple can use its ecosystem, services and enormous existing customer base to support future generations.
(+1) 2027 Could Be the Real Breakout Year
The most important milestone may not be the September 2026 launch itself but the following year, when Apple has more time to increase production, refine software and demonstrate whether customers are willing to make foldables part of their normal smartphone upgrade cycle.
Final Outlook
(+1) The evidence currently points toward a major expansion of the foldable smartphone market, with Apple positioned to become one of its most powerful forces. The reported first-year shipment forecast above 10 million units is ambitious, but it is supported by a broader trend: foldables are becoming more premium, book-style designs are gaining share, and the smartphone industry increasingly needs new reasons for consumers to upgrade.
The Bigger Picture
Apple’s foldable iPhone could ultimately matter less because it is a foldable and more because it may redefine what consumers expect from an iPhone. If Apple can combine a durable hinge, high-quality displays, strong cameras, long battery life, intelligent software and genuinely useful AI-powered multitasking, the device could become the company’s most important new hardware category in years.
The September Test
September 9 will provide the first major answer. Until then, the 10-million-unit figure remains a forecast, not a guarantee. But the convergence of IDC and Counterpoint projections makes one conclusion increasingly difficult to ignore: Apple’s arrival could transform foldable smartphones from an expensive niche into one of the defining battlegrounds of the premium mobile industry.
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