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A New Chapter for the iPhone
Apple is preparing to enter one of the most experimental and expensive corners of the smartphone market, and the stakes could hardly be higher. After years of rumors, speculation and cautious experimentation by rival manufacturers, the company is widely expected to introduce its first foldable iPhone in September 2026.
The timing is remarkable. The smartphone market is facing one of its harshest contractions ever, component prices are rising, memory shortages are putting pressure on manufacturers, and consumers are becoming increasingly reluctant to pay more for conventional phones that look and feel largely the same as the models they already own.
Yet amid that downturn, one category is moving in the opposite direction: foldables.
IDC now expects global foldable smartphone shipments to grow 12.6% in 2026 and accelerate to 18% growth in 2027. More dramatically, IDC believes Apple’s entry could transform the category from a niche premium market into one of the industry’s most important growth stories.
IDC’s 10 Million-Unit Prediction
According to IDC’s latest forecast, Apple’s first foldable iPhone could exceed 10 million shipments during its first year of availability.
That is an extraordinary prediction for a device expected to occupy an ultra-premium price segment. The reported price is around $2,500, putting the device far above the price of mainstream smartphones and even above many conventional flagship models.
IDC senior research director Nabila Popal believes that price will not necessarily prevent success. Instead, Apple may be targeting a relatively small but extremely valuable group of consumers who want the newest technology regardless of cost.
The forecast is particularly striking because Apple would be entering a category that has existed for years without becoming truly mainstream.
Apple Is Arriving Late — But Potentially at the Perfect Time
Samsung helped establish the modern foldable smartphone category roughly seven years ago, and manufacturers including Huawei and others have spent years refining the technology.
Apple, however, has stayed away.
Rather than being first, Apple appears to have taken the classic approach of watching the market mature before committing to the technology. That strategy has allowed competitors to absorb some of the early engineering problems involving hinges, flexible displays, durability, battery capacity and software optimization.
Apple’s first foldable therefore arrives at a very different stage of the market than Samsung’s early experiments.
The question is no longer whether a smartphone can fold.
The question is whether Apple can convince millions of people that it should.
The “Passport-Style” iPhone
The expected design is often described as a book-style or passport-style foldable.
Instead of opening vertically like some compact flip phones, the device is expected to unfold horizontally, transforming from a conventional smartphone-sized device into something closer to a small tablet.
That form factor could give Apple a compelling productivity and entertainment argument.
Users could potentially browse websites, edit documents, watch videos, multitask and run applications on a much larger internal display without carrying a separate tablet.
The success of the product will therefore depend on whether consumers perceive the folding mechanism as more than a technological novelty.
Why $2,500 May Not Be a Deal Breaker
A $2,500 smartphone sounds almost absurd when compared with the price of mainstream devices.
But
The company has built an enormous ecosystem around premium hardware, software, services and accessories. For some customers, purchasing an expensive iPhone is not simply about getting a phone. It is about accessing an ecosystem they already depend on.
A foldable iPhone could therefore become an aspirational product in exactly the same way that Apple’s most expensive laptops, watches and professional devices attract customers willing to pay more.
IDC’s forecast essentially assumes that Apple can create that same emotional pull around a foldable device.
The Smartphone Market Is Shrinking While Prices Are Rising
The broader market provides an even more interesting backdrop.
IDC expects worldwide smartphone shipments to decline by 16.7% in 2026, representing the steepest annual contraction in the history of the market according to its latest forecast.
Yet the value of the overall smartphone market is expected to rise because manufacturers are charging substantially more for devices.
IDC says global smartphone average selling prices are expected to increase 27.6% this year to $581, with memory shortages and rising component costs playing a major role.
This creates a strange situation: fewer smartphones are being sold, but the industry is becoming more expensive.
The End of the Cheap Smartphone Era
The most important message from
It may be about the death of the inexpensive smartphone.
Memory components are increasingly important to modern smartphones, particularly as manufacturers add larger storage capacities and AI-related features. At the same time, demand from AI infrastructure is putting pressure on the broader semiconductor supply chain.
IDC says NAND and DRAM costs have risen dramatically, contributing to higher smartphone prices and squeezing manufacturers operating at the lower end of the market.
That means the smartphone industry is entering a period where affordability itself is becoming a competitive advantage.
Apple, sitting primarily at the premium end of the market, is structurally better positioned to absorb those pressures than companies dependent on extremely low-cost devices.
Foldables Could Become the Industry’s Silver Lining
According to IDC, foldables are one of the few parts of the smartphone market expected to grow this year.
Global foldable shipments are forecast to reach approximately 22.9 million units in 2026, representing 12.6% growth. IDC expects the category to reach roughly 27 million units in 2027 after another 18% increase.
Those numbers remain tiny compared with the more than one billion smartphones shipped globally.
But foldables have one major advantage.
They generate substantially more revenue per device.
Apple Could Capture 40% of Foldables by 2027
IDC’s long-term prediction is even more aggressive.
The research firm expects Apple to eventually account for roughly 40% of global foldable smartphone shipments in 2027, with more than 17 million foldable iPhones projected for that year.
That would put Apple in direct competition with Samsung and Huawei, companies that have spent years establishing themselves in the category.
It would also demonstrate one of
Apple did not invent the smartphone.
It did not invent the smartwatch.
It did not invent the tablet.
Yet
The Apple Effect Could Be Bigger Than the iPhone Itself
This is perhaps the most important part of the story.
Apple’s foldable iPhone does not need to dominate the entire smartphone market to be considered a success.
It could succeed simply by making foldables culturally relevant.
Many consumers have heard about foldable phones but have never seriously considered purchasing one. Apple’s marketing machine could change that almost overnight.
Once millions of people see celebrities, business professionals, creators and technology enthusiasts using an Apple foldable, the category could stop feeling experimental.
It could become normal.
Samsung’s Seven-Year Head Start Is Suddenly Less Comfortable
Samsung has spent years building its foldable portfolio and refining its hardware.
That head start matters.
Samsung has learned from multiple generations of foldable phones, developed manufacturing expertise and built a recognizable product family around its Galaxy Z lineup.
But Apple brings a different weapon: ecosystem integration.
If Apple can make the foldable iPhone work seamlessly with iCloud, Macs, iPads, Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Intelligence and the wider iOS ecosystem, consumers may perceive the device as a fundamentally different experience rather than simply another folding smartphone.
The Real Battle Will Be Software
Hardware will receive most of the attention when Apple unveils the device.
The hinge will be examined.
The displays will be tested.
The thickness will be measured.
The cameras will be compared.
But software could ultimately determine whether the product becomes indispensable.
A large internal screen creates opportunities for multitasking, advanced window management, document editing, gaming and media consumption.
Apple will need iOS to take advantage of that space without making users feel as though they are simply running an enlarged version of a normal phone interface.
If Apple gets that wrong, the foldable could feel like an expensive gimmick.
If Apple gets it right, the product could redefine what people expect from an iPhone.
Apple’s September Event Adds More Weight to the Story
Apple has officially scheduled its next major iPhone launch event for September 9, 2026. Current reporting expects the company’s first foldable iPhone to be among the major announcements surrounding the event.
That makes the IDC forecast particularly timely.
The market is no longer debating only whether Apple will eventually build a foldable.
Attention is now shifting toward a much more consequential question: how many people will actually buy it?
The Economics Behind the 10 Million Forecast
Ten million units sounds enormous until the number is placed against Apple’s overall scale.
Apple sells hundreds of millions of smartphones across its product range over time.
The foldable would represent only a fraction of that business.
But at an expected price around $2,500, even a comparatively small number of units could create billions of dollars in hardware revenue.
IDC estimates the average selling price of
That is why the category is so attractive.
The unit numbers may remain relatively small, while the financial impact can be enormous.
Why Consumers Might Actually Pay
There is a psychological component to
Consumers often do not purchase premium technology because it is economically rational.
They purchase it because they want the experience.
A $2,500 foldable could become the ultimate status product for Apple’s ecosystem: visibly different from a conventional iPhone and technologically distinctive enough to justify its premium positioning.
The first generation may therefore attract exactly the kind of buyer who normally queues for Apple’s newest products.
But 10 Million Is Still an Ambitious Target
IDC’s forecast should not be interpreted as a guaranteed sales number.
It is a market prediction.
Apple’s first foldable will face manufacturing constraints, high component costs, uncertain durability and an unusually high retail price.
Even a small problem with the hinge, display, battery or software could damage consumer confidence.
And unlike conventional iPhones, foldables have additional mechanical components that introduce additional failure points.
That means
The Durability Question
Foldable phones have improved dramatically, but durability remains one of the category’s defining challenges.
A conventional smartphone has no folding hinge.
A foldable does.
The internal display must repeatedly bend without developing visible damage, while the hinge must remain smooth and reliable after years of use.
Apple’s reputation could make this especially important.
Customers paying around $2,500 will expect an extraordinary level of reliability.
They will not view hardware failure as an unavoidable compromise of early-generation technology.
They will expect Apple to have solved it.
The Repairability Problem
The premium price also changes the economics of repairs.
If a conventional smartphone breaks, replacing it is already expensive.
A foldable with a complex internal display and hinge could be considerably more costly to repair.
Apple therefore faces pressure to create not only a durable device but also a repair strategy that makes sense for customers who have invested thousands of dollars.
This could become an important part of the product’s long-term reputation.
AI Could Strengthen the Foldable’s Value
The foldable iPhone will also arrive during an enormous shift toward on-device and cloud-based artificial intelligence.
A larger internal display creates an ideal environment for AI-assisted workflows.
Imagine an AI assistant occupying one side of the screen while documents, messages, browser results or creative tools occupy the other.
That could make the foldable much more than a larger iPhone.
It could become a mobile workstation.
This is especially important because AI is simultaneously contributing to the industry’s component shortages and creating new reasons for consumers to upgrade.
Deep Analysis: How to Evaluate the Foldable iPhone’s Impact
Start With Shipment Growth
A simple way to understand the market impact is to compare Apple’s forecast with total foldable shipments.
IDC 2026 foldable market:
≈ 22.9 million units
IDC 2027 foldable market:
≈ 27 million units
Apple 2027 forecast:
>17 million units
Projected Apple share:
≈40%
The numbers show why
If the category reaches roughly 27 million units in 2027 and Apple alone ships more than 17 million, the competitive landscape would change dramatically.
Monitor Apple’s Supply Chain
Technical analysts can also monitor public supply-chain indicators and device production signals.
For Linux-based systems, basic network and DNS diagnostics can help researchers inspect connectivity when studying cloud-based AI services or launch infrastructure:
curl -I https://www.apple.com/ dig apple.com traceroute apple.com
These commands do not reveal
Track Device Pricing
A useful analytical variable is the ratio between the foldable’s expected price and the broader smartphone average selling price.
IDC forecasts a global smartphone ASP of around $581 in 2026, while the expected Apple foldable price is around $2,500.
That means the foldable could cost more than four times the projected global smartphone average.
This tells us something important.
Apple is not trying to make foldables mainstream through affordability.
It is attempting to make them desirable through premium positioning.
Watch Apple’s Software Strategy
The most important technical indicators after launch will include:
Example: inspect HTTP response headers
curl -I https://www.apple.com/
Example: test DNS resolution
nslookup apple.com
Example: inspect network connectivity
ping -c 4 apple.com
These commands are generic diagnostic examples rather than methods for discovering confidential Apple information.
For product analysis, the real goal is to observe how Apple’s software architecture handles the transition between folded and unfolded states.
Examine Multitasking
A successful foldable should make the larger display useful.
Reviewers should examine:
Split-screen workflows
App resizing
Drag-and-drop behavior
Keyboard support
External-display functionality
Video playback
Gaming
Document editing
AI-assisted multitasking
Continuity with Macs and iPads
The more naturally these functions work, the more convincing Apple’s foldable becomes.
What Undercode Say:
The Biggest Story Is Not the Phone
The most interesting part of
It is
Apple Could Turn Curiosity Into Demand
Foldables have existed for years, but curiosity has not always translated into mass adoption.
Apple has the marketing power to change that equation.
Ten Million Units Would Be a Powerful Signal
If Apple actually exceeds 10 million first-year shipments, competitors will have little choice but to take the category more seriously.
The Price Is Both a Strength and a Weakness
A $2,500 price creates enormous revenue potential.
But it also dramatically limits the addressable audience.
Apple Does Not Need Everyone
The company only needs enough premium customers to create a successful first generation.
A smaller audience can still produce extraordinary revenue.
Foldables Could Become a New Premium Tier
Instead of replacing conventional iPhones, foldables may eventually sit above them.
That would give Apple another high-margin category.
The iPhone Could Become More Like a Computer
The larger display creates opportunities for productivity that traditional smartphones cannot match.
That could make the foldable
Software Will Decide Whether the Concept Works
A beautiful hinge cannot compensate for poor software.
Apple’s biggest challenge may therefore be designing an operating experience that understands two physical screen states.
AI Makes the Timing Interesting
The arrival of increasingly powerful AI assistants creates a natural use case for larger mobile displays.
A foldable could allow users to see AI results alongside the applications where they are being used.
The Memory Crisis Creates Another Opportunity
Rising memory prices are hurting manufacturers across the market.
Apple’s premium positioning gives it more room to absorb those increases.
Cheap Phones Are Becoming Harder to Build
IDC’s forecast suggests the traditional race toward cheaper smartphones is becoming increasingly difficult.
That could accelerate consolidation in the industry.
Premium Buyers May Become More Important
As entry-level phones become more expensive, manufacturers may increasingly prioritize customers willing to spend more.
Apple is already positioned for that environment.
Samsung Still Has a Major Advantage
Apple may have enormous brand power, but Samsung has years of practical foldable experience.
The competition will therefore be fascinating.
Huawei Cannot Be Ignored
Huawei remains a major player in foldables, particularly in China.
Apple’s success will depend heavily on regional market dynamics.
Apple’s Ecosystem Could Be Its Secret Weapon
The strongest reason to buy an Apple foldable may not be the folding display.
It may be everything around it.
The First Generation Will Be Closely Watched
Every engineering decision will receive intense scrutiny.
Apple cannot afford a major reliability scandal on a $2,500 device.
Durability Will Matter More Than Thinness
Consumers may forgive a slightly thicker foldable.
They are less likely to forgive a fragile one.
Battery Life Will Be Critical
A larger display generally creates additional power demands.
Apple will need to balance thinness, battery capacity and performance.
Camera Performance Will Also Matter
A $2,500 iPhone will be judged against
Users will expect flagship-level photography.
Storage Could Become a Major Revenue Lever
Premium hardware often comes with premium storage options.
Apple could use storage tiers to push average selling prices even higher.
Accessories Could Expand the Ecosystem
A foldable could create demand for cases, keyboards, stands and other accessories.
That adds another layer of revenue beyond the phone itself.
Developers Will Have to Adapt
A new screen format means applications must handle additional layouts.
Apple’s developer ecosystem could make that transition easier than it would be for smaller manufacturers.
The App Store Could Become More Important
If foldable-specific experiences emerge, Apple could use its software ecosystem to encourage developers to build them.
Gaming Could Become a Major Use Case
A larger screen could make mobile gaming considerably more immersive.
The challenge will be balancing heat, battery life and performance.
Productivity Could Be the Killer Feature
If the foldable allows users to comfortably work on documents and multitask, it could compete with some tablet use cases.
Tablets Could Face New Competition
A foldable iPhone could reduce the need for some users to carry both a smartphone and a small tablet.
Apple May Eventually Create a New Product Ladder
The future could look something like:
Standard iPhone
↓
Premium iPhone
↓
Foldable iPhone
↓
iPad / Mac
That would give Apple more opportunities to move customers upward through its ecosystem.
The Category Could Grow Faster Than Expected
IDC already expects 12.6% growth in 2026 and 18% in 2027.
Apple’s marketing could potentially push consumer interest even higher.
But Forecasts Can Be Wrong
IDC is making a projection, not announcing actual sales.
Production problems or weak consumer demand could materially change the outcome.
The $2,500 Price Is the Biggest Risk
Premium pricing creates strong margins but narrows the market.
Apple will have to convince customers that the additional flexibility is worth thousands of dollars.
The Psychological Factor Is Powerful
Consumers often buy premium Apple products because they want something new.
That emotional factor could be particularly strong with a foldable.
Apple Could Make Foldables Cool Again
That may ultimately be the
The category does not necessarily need millions of ordinary buyers immediately.
It needs cultural momentum.
A Successful Foldable Would Pressure Android
If
Competition Could Ultimately Benefit Consumers
More competition should push the industry toward better hinges, thinner displays, stronger materials and more useful software.
The Foldable Market Is Entering Its Most Important Phase
For years, foldables have been an experiment.
Apple’s arrival could turn that experiment into a mainstream premium category.
The Next Two Years Could Define the Market
If Apple succeeds in 2026 and 2027, foldables could become one of the industry’s central growth engines.
If it fails, manufacturers may become much more cautious.
The Real Test Begins at Launch
The IDC prediction is exciting.
But the real verdict will come when consumers actually put the device in their hands.
Apple Is Betting on Desire, Not Affordability
That is the central idea behind the entire strategy.
Apple does not need to convince everyone.
It needs to convince enough people that the future is worth paying for.
Final Undercode Verdict
A foldable iPhone exceeding 10 million shipments would be far more than a successful new product launch.
It would represent a turning point for an entire category.
IDC’s current forecast is undeniably bullish, but the underlying logic is compelling: Apple’s enormous ecosystem, premium customer base and global marketing power could provide exactly the catalyst foldables have been missing.
The bigger question is whether Apple can deliver a device that feels revolutionary rather than merely expensive.
If it can, the foldable iPhone may not simply join the smartphone market.
It could change where the smartphone market goes next.
✅ IDC’s 16.7% Smartphone Decline Forecast Is Confirmed
IDC’s latest published forecast says worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to fall 16.7% in 2026, describing it as the steepest annual contraction on record.
The research firm also says average smartphone selling prices are expected to rise substantially because of memory shortages and higher component costs.
✅ Foldables Are Forecast to Grow
IDC currently projects foldable smartphone shipments to increase 12.6% in 2026 and another 18% in 2027.
The research firm estimates the category will reach approximately 22.9 million units this year and around 27 million units in 2027.
✅ Apple’s 10 Million+ First-Year Forecast Is Supported
Multiple reports published on August 26–27, 2026, cite IDC’s prediction that Apple’s first foldable iPhone could exceed 10 million shipments during its first year.
The reported expected price is around $2,500, although Apple’s final retail pricing and product specifications should be treated as unconfirmed until officially announced.
✅ Apple’s September Launch Timing Is Strongly Supported
Apple has officially announced a September 9, 2026 product event, and current reporting widely expects the first foldable iPhone to be unveiled there.
The exact commercial launch date, final name and complete specifications remain matters for Apple’s official announcement.
⚠️ The 40% 2027 Market-Share Figure Is a Forecast
IDC projects Apple could capture roughly 40% of global foldable shipments in 2027.
That number should not be presented as an established fact because it describes a future market outcome rather than measured historical sales.
Prediction
(+1) Apple Could Turn Foldables Into a Major Premium Smartphone Category
The strongest positive scenario is that Apple launches a polished foldable with excellent durability, battery life, cameras and software integration.
If the device meets those expectations, Apple’s ecosystem could rapidly increase consumer awareness of foldables and encourage competitors to accelerate their own products.
A first-year shipment figure above 10 million would then become the beginning of a much larger trend rather than an isolated launch success.
(+1) Apple Could Capture a Huge Share of the Category
If IDC’s forecast proves accurate, Apple could approach 40% of global foldable shipments by 2027.
That would be an extraordinary result for a company entering the category years after Samsung.
(+1) Foldables Could Become the Smartphone Industry’s New Premium Frontier
The long-term impact could extend beyond Apple.
A successful foldable iPhone would encourage Samsung, Huawei and other manufacturers to invest even more aggressively in foldable displays, hinges, batteries and software.
That competition could eventually drive prices downward while improving the technology.
(-1) The Price Could Limit Mass Adoption
The biggest negative scenario is simple: consumers may admire the foldable but refuse to spend around $2,500 on it.
Even Apple’s strongest brand loyalty has limits.
(-1) Manufacturing Problems Could Disrupt the Forecast
First-generation foldables are mechanically complex.
If Apple encounters supply constraints, display problems or hinge issues, actual shipments could fall substantially below IDC’s expectations.
(-1) The Product Could Become a Luxury Accessory Instead of a New Mainstream Category
If customers view the foldable primarily as a status symbol rather than a useful computing device, Apple could sell millions of units while still failing to transform the broader smartphone market.
Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is positive.
Apple’s foldable iPhone will probably become one of the most important smartphone launches of 2026, not because it will immediately replace conventional iPhones, but because it could finally give foldables the mainstream credibility they have been missing.
The 10 million-unit prediction is ambitious, but Apple’s premium positioning, ecosystem strength and marketing reach make the forecast considerably more believable than it would be for almost any other smartphone manufacturer.
The smartphone market may be shrinking, but Apple’s foldable bet could prove that innovation — when paired with the right ecosystem — can still create a new market inside a declining one.
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