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Introduction: A New Era of Cyber Warfare
Cybersecurity in 2026 is no longer defined solely by isolated ransomware incidents. Instead, organizations worldwide are facing a new generation of cyber threats where attackers no longer target only a single company—they increasingly compromise software suppliers, trusted development platforms, and enterprise infrastructure to reach thousands of victims at once.
The latest Quarterly Cyber Threat Intelligence Report from NCC Group paints a concerning picture. While ransomware attacks increased only modestly during the second quarter of 2026, the underlying tactics used by cybercriminals have become significantly more dangerous. Supply chain compromises, VPN exploitation, credential theft, and highly organized Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) operations are reshaping the threat landscape.
The numbers may suggest a slow increase, but the sophistication behind today’s attacks reveals that cybercriminals are becoming more efficient, more professional, and far more difficult to stop.
Ransomware Continues Its Upward Trend
According to NCC Group, ransomware incidents increased by approximately 3% during the second quarter of 2026.
The total number of reported attacks rose from 2,165 incidents in Q1 to 2,229 attacks in Q2, demonstrating that despite improved defensive technologies, ransomware remains one of the world’s fastest-growing cybercrime industries.
June alone accounted for 665 ransomware attacks, confirming that threat actors remain consistently active throughout the year rather than relying on seasonal campaigns.
Although a 3% increase appears relatively small, cybersecurity experts emphasize that attack volume tells only part of the story. Today’s ransomware operations are larger, more coordinated, and capable of inflicting far greater damage than previous generations.
Industrial Companies Remain the Primary Target
Manufacturing and industrial organizations once again experienced the highest number of attacks.
Nearly 30% of all ransomware victims during Q2 belonged to the industrial sector, while 28% of June’s attacks also focused on industrial infrastructure.
Factories, logistics providers, energy companies, engineering firms, and manufacturing plants continue to attract attackers because operational downtime immediately translates into financial losses.
Many industrial environments still rely on legacy operational technology (OT), making them especially attractive targets for ransomware operators seeking maximum leverage.
Consumer Discretionary businesses and Information Technology companies followed closely behind as the second and third most targeted industries.
North America Remains Ground Zero
Geographically, North America continues to experience the highest concentration of ransomware activity.
The region accounted for:
44% of all Q2 ransomware attacks
41% of
Europe represented roughly one-quarter of global attacks, followed by Asia.
The concentration of multinational corporations, critical infrastructure, financial institutions, cloud providers, and healthcare organizations continues to make North America the preferred hunting ground for cybercriminal organizations.
Qilin Maintains Its Criminal Dominance
The ransomware ecosystem continues to be dominated by several well-established groups.
Qilin retained its position as the most active ransomware organization for the fifth consecutive quarter, being linked to approximately 301 victims, representing roughly 14% of all attacks during Q2.
Other major players included:
The Gentlemen – 238 victims
DragonForce – 145 victims
Meanwhile, a newcomer known as KryBit emerged rapidly after launching its Ransomware-as-a-Service platform, claiming 56 victims during its first full quarter of operation.
The rapid emergence of new ransomware brands demonstrates how quickly cybercriminal ecosystems evolve after law enforcement pressure or internal disputes.
Corporate VPNs Have Become the Weakest Link
One of the
Virtual Private Networks remain one of the most exploited entry points for ransomware operators throughout 2026.
Groups including:
Akira
Qilin
The Gentlemen
have repeatedly exploited vulnerabilities affecting enterprise products from vendors including:
Fortinet
SonicWall
Citrix
Check Point
Rather than relying on phishing emails alone, attackers increasingly target internet-facing devices to bypass authentication and establish persistent access inside corporate environments.
Once inside, lateral movement becomes significantly easier.
FortiBleed Raises New Concerns
Among the most alarming discoveries highlighted in the report is the large-scale credential exposure incident known as FortiBleed.
Researchers estimate that approximately half of all publicly exposed FortiGate devices were affected by credential leakage during June.
This exposure potentially provides cybercriminals with authentication data that could be weaponized in future ransomware campaigns.
Security teams now face the difficult challenge of determining whether compromised credentials have already been harvested by attackers.
Supply Chain Attacks Continue to Accelerate
Perhaps the most significant trend identified during Q2 involves software supply chain compromises.
Rather than attacking organizations directly, threat actors increasingly compromise trusted software ecosystems that distribute code to thousands of downstream users.
Researchers observed campaigns targeting:
GitHub Actions
npm
PyPI
Docker Hub
Open VSX
Visual Studio Code Marketplace
This strategy enables attackers to distribute malicious code through legitimate development pipelines.
Instead of compromising one company, a single successful supply chain attack can affect thousands of organizations simultaneously.
TeamPCP Expands Its Malware Campaigns
NCC Group linked much of this activity to the financially motivated threat group TeamPCP.
One of its most notable creations was the self-propagating Mini Shai-Hulud worm.
After its source code became publicly available on GitHub during May, multiple criminal groups developed their own variants.
Researchers later identified derivative malware families named:
Miasma
Hades
This illustrates a growing problem within cybercrime: once advanced malware becomes public, numerous copycat operations quickly emerge.
Transitive Trust Has Become the New Attack Surface
Modern software development depends heavily on trust.
Developers rely on open-source libraries, automated CI/CD pipelines, cloud credentials, package managers, and third-party integrations.
Cybercriminals increasingly exploit this transitive trust.
Rather than attacking end users directly, they compromise trusted maintainers, steal authentication tokens, hijack repositories, or manipulate build systems.
The resulting malware spreads automatically through legitimate software updates.
This strategy significantly amplifies the impact of a single successful breach.
Ransomware Operations Are Becoming Professional Businesses
Modern ransomware groups increasingly resemble legitimate technology companies.
NCC Group highlighted leaked internal information from The Gentlemen ransomware operation, revealing:
Structured negotiations with victims
Affiliate management systems
Dedicated EDR-disabling tools
Organized operational workflows
Today’s Ransomware-as-a-Service platforms often provide customer support, technical documentation, recruitment systems, and profit-sharing models.
Cybercrime has evolved into a highly organized commercial ecosystem.
Information Stealers Are Becoming More Advanced
The report also notes that commodity infostealer malware is becoming increasingly sophisticated.
New variants now incorporate techniques traditionally associated with advanced persistent threat (APT) actors.
Capabilities include:
Rootkit-style concealment
Browser extension credential theft
Off-host decryption
Advanced defense evasion
This convergence between ordinary malware and high-end intrusion techniques makes detection significantly more difficult.
Geopolitical Events Continue to Shape Cyber Threats
Cybersecurity no longer exists independently of global politics.
NCC Group highlighted several geopolitical developments expected to influence cyber operations during the remainder of 2026, including:
Rising China–Taiwan tensions
Belarus’s evolving relationship with Russia
Ireland’s upcoming EU Council presidency
State-sponsored groups frequently adjust their targeting priorities according to geopolitical developments, increasing risks for government agencies and critical infrastructure providers.
Deep Analysis
The Q2 report reinforces a trend that has become increasingly visible throughout 2026: ransomware is evolving from opportunistic cybercrime into an industrialized ecosystem supported by automation, affiliate networks, and increasingly complex attack chains. Rather than relying on a single vulnerability, modern campaigns combine exposed VPN appliances, stolen credentials, cloud identities, supply chain compromises, and AI-assisted reconnaissance to maximize success rates.
Another important observation is the shift toward attacking trusted software infrastructure. When attackers compromise package repositories, CI/CD pipelines, or developer accounts, they weaponize the trust relationship between software creators and users. This dramatically increases the scale of potential damage compared to traditional endpoint attacks.
Organizations should continuously audit exposed services and monitor software dependencies using layered security practices.
Example security commands administrators can use include:
Identify internet-facing services
nmap -Pn <target-ip>
Review active VPN connections
ss -tulpn
Scan for known vulnerabilities
nikto -h https://target.example
Audit installed packages
npm audit pip-audit
Check Docker images
docker scout quickview
Search exposed secrets
trufflehog filesystem .
Monitor suspicious authentication attempts
journalctl -u ssh
Verify system integrity
rkhunter --check
Technical controls alone are no longer enough. Organizations should implement Zero Trust architecture, multi-factor authentication, privileged access management, continuous vulnerability scanning, immutable backups, network segmentation, behavioral monitoring, and regular incident response exercises to improve cyber resilience.
What Undercode Say:
The NCC Group report confirms what many cybersecurity researchers have been observing throughout 2026: ransomware is no longer evolving through volume alone—it is evolving through efficiency.
A 3% quarterly increase may appear insignificant at first glance.
However, the methods behind these attacks have become dramatically more sophisticated.
Instead of attacking random victims, criminals now identify trusted infrastructure that gives them exponential reach.
Supply chain attacks have become one of the most effective force multipliers available to threat actors.
Compromising one developer can compromise thousands of companies.
VPN infrastructure remains dangerously exposed worldwide.
Many organizations continue running outdated firmware despite repeated security advisories.
This creates a predictable attack surface.
Ransomware groups have become organized businesses rather than loose criminal gangs.
Affiliate programs lower the barrier to entry for less-skilled criminals.
Negotiation teams now operate like corporate sales departments.
Information stealers increasingly act as reconnaissance tools before ransomware deployment.
Credential theft is becoming the first stage of many major breaches.
Artificial intelligence is also changing attacker behavior.
AI can accelerate phishing campaigns, vulnerability research, malware development, and victim profiling.
Defenders are adopting AI as well, but attackers often need only one successful intrusion.
Open-source ecosystems remain particularly vulnerable.
Maintainers are becoming high-value targets.
Developer credentials have become as valuable as administrator passwords.
The software supply chain is now part of national critical infrastructure.
Security can no longer be limited to endpoint protection.
Organizations need visibility across identities, cloud environments, source code, third-party dependencies, and development pipelines.
Executive leadership must recognize cybersecurity as a business continuity issue rather than an IT expense.
Cyber resilience should receive board-level oversight.
Incident response planning must be practiced before an attack occurs.
Offline backups remain essential.
Continuous monitoring is becoming mandatory.
Threat intelligence should directly inform patch management priorities.
Zero Trust architectures reduce lateral movement opportunities.
Identity protection deserves equal attention alongside endpoint security.
Software Bill of Materials (SBOM) adoption will become increasingly important.
Package signing and artifact verification should become standard practice.
Organizations must monitor supplier risk continuously.
Cyber insurance alone cannot offset operational disruption.
Attack surface management will continue growing in importance.
The convergence of ransomware, supply chain attacks, and AI-assisted operations will likely define the next generation of cyber threats.
Companies that modernize proactively will be significantly more resilient than those relying on reactive security practices.
✅ Confirmed: NCC Group reported ransomware attacks increasing from 2,165 in Q1 to 2,229 in Q2 2026, representing roughly a 3% rise.
✅ Confirmed: The report identifies VPN appliances and internet-facing edge devices as major initial access vectors, with vulnerabilities affecting products from Fortinet, SonicWall, Citrix, and Check Point receiving significant attention.
✅ Confirmed: Supply chain attacks targeting platforms such as GitHub Actions, npm, PyPI, Docker Hub, Open VSX, and the VS Code Marketplace were highlighted as a rapidly growing threat, reinforcing broader industry concerns about software ecosystem security.
Prediction
(+1) Organizations will significantly increase investment in Zero Trust architectures, secure software development practices, SBOM adoption, and automated threat detection, strengthening long-term resilience against ransomware.
(-1) Ransomware operators will continue shifting toward software supply chain compromises, cloud identity attacks, and VPN exploitation, allowing fewer attackers to compromise a much larger number of organizations simultaneously if defensive improvements fail to keep pace.
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